![]() Cardner's hand against the villain's range. Calling and shoving are both clearly +EV with Dr. She doesn't have any fold equity against top pair+ played this way on the flop. Against her main bluff target, middling pairs, she has a lot of runouts where she can extract a ton of value, and some where a bluff will have a great success of working than on the flop. ![]() In retrospect I think the decision between shoving and calling is a lot closer than we might. A J or a T will make her hand best a decent amount of the time. And a club or 9 will almost always give hero the nuts and she can then value bet in position. When or A or a K hits the hero has a great spot to bluff. So even if the villain continues to bet again and bets the size of the pot of around 700, the hero has direct odds to call, not even factoring in some level of implied odds. ConclusionĪgainst this villain, when the board pairs or low cards come out on the turn, the Hero still has a little less than 40% equity against the villain's flop checkraising range. Likewise, if hero had a made hand, they're very unlikely to fold to raise or a bet when checked to when these low cards roll off. If hero had a made hand, they're very unlikely to fold to raise or a bet when checked to when the board pairs. These are great bluffing cards for the hero, especially the A, as it puts even more pressure on the middle pairs, the primary bluff-target of Hero when she opts to call the flop and bet the turn. Cardner has a ton of implied odds when they hit as they are a safe card for JJ and TT, and give 99 a set. While there are only three offsuit nines, Dr. When checked to she can likely get away with a thin value bet. ![]() Really only a set or a worse flush draw played this way will put more money in the pot here.Īgainst a middle pair that opted to checkraise, these cards will give the hero the best hand. If the club comes off and the hero hits the flush, I think it's unlikely that she has much implied odds here. Here is a list of the main types of turn cards that can roll off, and what might happen on them. On the podcast Jack and I thought this would be a pretty clear spot to shove because no matter what, the play is somewhat profitable, and if the villain is checkraise folding most of their middling pairs, then this becomes an even more profitable play.īut let's look more in depth to the other viable option here: calling. Given the $735 already in the pot though, if Hero shoves it's a much better outcome to simply win the pot now and get hands with a ton of equity to fold, even if she's ahead of some of his middling pairs when called. So as a starting point, shoving is profitable even if the villain calls the shove with his entire range. For example, I gave villain 50% weight of his combo of AKcc.Īgainst the range above, even accounted for some slowplayed sets, JTcc has 56% equity. Note the new feature in PokerCruncher, the ability to have weighted combos of individual hands. So when constructing the villain's checkraising range, I left in many more combos than I ordinarily would assign. Cardner about what the villain's check raising range looks like, she noted that several times throughout the session he has done so with middle pair type hands. Once villain makes a fairly large checkraise, here is where things get interesting. When the flop comes Qc5c8s and the hero is checked to, she has a very clear bet - she has no showdown value and significant equity against the villain's checking range. Our hero calls on the button with JTcc and she sees the flop heads up. Based on Tricia Cardner's explanation of the player, his range in early position isn't going to be too out of line, but likely a little bit looser than optimal in a tougher 5/10 game, so I gave him 12.5% of hands with the hands on the margins being weaker suited aces, and midding suited connectors and suited one gappers.
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